On the 19th October, 4most will be hosting an Economic Roundtable, hosted by Head of Economic Modelling Keith Church, which will outline key economic developments and the risks that lie ahead.
The last three months have seen the UK economy slow significantly, with squeezed household finances and uncertainty over Brexit both playing a part. The session will cover the pressures on UK households finances from rising prices and examine the implications of current trends in unsecured lending on the ability of consumers to service their credit commitments. The final shape of UK’s relationship with the rest of the EU remains elusive. The session will conclude by looking at the issue of how these risks might be incorporated into an alternative scenario.
Key themes for discussion
- The real income squeeze: who is losing most?
- Real incomes are now expected to decline for the rest of the year. But experience among customers will vary a great deal. Which groups are faring well in the income stakes? And where in the income distribution is the squeeze on real incomes greatest?
- The 4most Brexit scenario.
- Following Theresa May’s Florence speech, we outline the most likely Brexit scenario and the risks around that central case. The presentation will draw out the industries, occupations and regions that are most exposed to potential downside risks and outline a potential alternative scenario.
- How much personal credit is too much?
- With recent rise in unsecured credit very much on the Bank of England’s horizon, we will look at recent trends in lending and discuss their sustainability and signs of consumer stress. What macroprudential actions might the regulator take?