This March marks 10 years since the fire sale of Bear Stearns in 2008, a significant moment in the global financial crisis. This moment offers us an appropriate time to reflect and assess how the banking industry has changed in that time and learned from the mistakes of the past – and to consider what the future holds for the sector.
On 28th November, the Bank of England published the results from its 2017 stress tests, which provided an assessment of the stability of UK’s banking system.
The headlines show that the major UK banks have all passed the stress tests and are deemed strong enough to keep lending in a scenario more severe than that of the 2008 global financial crisis, which is good news for the sector.
Over the past decade, there has been a significant shift in patterns of consumer behaviour in relation to purchasing of new cars. UK private car registrations were 39% higher in 2016 than they were in 2011, a trend which has in part been driven by the expansion of the Personal Contract Purchase (PCP) deals. Some 82% of private new car purchases was financed in this way in 2016. PCPs contribution to the rise in unsecured borrowing is firmly on the radar of both the Bank of England (BoE) and Financial Conduct Authority (FCA).
Worries about the level of debt in the UK household sector have re-emerged over the last year. The period of – rather modest – retrenchment that took place during and since the global financial crisis saw debt fall from a peak of 163% of income to 141%.
UK unemployment continues to fall. In the three months to February, there were 45,000 fewer people unable to find a job than was the case in September to November 2016. This is down 141,000 on a year ago. Those looking at the numbers from a credit risk perspective can take heart: the last time the UK unemployment rate was this low was in the 1970s.
On the 31st October 2016 the consultation period closed on new proposals by the Prudential Regulatory Authority (PRA), which are highly likely to alter the internal ratings based (IRB) approach that deposit institutions (banks and building societies) with residential mortgage lending portfolios will need to adopt when calculating their risk-weighted assets (RWA).
The final March budget didn’t spring any surprises. While the Chancellor presented a more optimistic picture for short-term growth, predications from the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) forecasts indicate that the improvement will likely not last long.
The financial services industry is currently busying itself with building models to predict the lifetime losses under the new IFRS 9 accounting standard, specifically for their stage 2 and stage 3 accounts. Generally, these are account level lifetime loss predictions with the ability to mechanically adjust to use probability weighted economic scenarios.
IFRS 9 (the new accounting standard) is fast approaching with many organisations already in full swing in terms of development and with their chasing pack firmly in the planning stages for design and build. But just how ready are you for the impending changes?
IFRS9 (the new accounting standard) is fast approaching with many organisations already in full swing in terms of development and with their chasing pack firmly in the planning stages for design and build. But just how ready are you for the impending changes?
IFRS 9 is the new accounting standard from the International Accounting Standards Board for credit losses on portfolios of loans. It will come into effect in most jurisdictions for reporting periods starting January 2018. One of the key principles is that lenders should use relevant data that is reasonably available to assess the appropriateness of credit provisions.
Right now, most organisations are well on their way to coming up with a compliant solution for IFRS 9. Management are starting to understand the direct impact to their P&L (profit and loss) although thought naturally moves to the other impacts of the implementation of this regulation.
IFRS9 is the new accounting standard from the IASB for credit losses on portfolios of loans that is expected to come into effect in January 2018 across at least 96 of 174 jurisdictions around the globe. Work in many banks and lenders is well progressed towards meeting the reporting deadline. I will not repeat the considerations required in the building of a new provision process here as that has been well covered in many places previously.
Finance services regulation is difficult to get right – knee jerk reactions often lead to unintended consequences and potentially the roots of the next bubble or crisis.
In response to the financial crisis of 2007-2008, the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) is replacing the “incurred loss” model for loan provisioning (IAS39) with an “expected loss” model for loan provisioning (IFRS 9).