Five modelling challenges in modern forecasting and stress testing

Five modelling challenges in modern forecasting and stress testing

Since the implementation of International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS) 9, capital & impairment forecasting and stress testing has seen a sharp rise in complexity across the banking industry. 4most consultants have been working on projects dealing with Internal Capital Adequacy Assessment Process (ICAAP)…

The PRA’s thoughts on IFRS 9 - our comment

The PRA’s thoughts on IFRS 9 - our comment

On the 15th April the PRA wrote to the CFO’s of the top seven banks to give their initial opinions on the implementation of the new impairment requirements under IFRS 9. As expected for such a substantial subject, the findings, based on their written auditor reporting work, are varied in nature. Through discussion with a range of lenders and client engagements, we see many of the issues raised by the PRA. However, there are also some omissions that we expected to see.

IFRS 9 Impairment Models - A regulatory cost or a business opportunity?

IFRS 9 Impairment Models - A regulatory cost or a business opportunity?

The financial services industry has recently undergone a major change due to the introduction of IFRS 9 impairment requirements. This has come generally at increased costs due to either the redirection of internal resource or engagement of third parties to develop compliant models.

Calculation of IFRS9 Expected Credit Losses with Discounted Cash Flows

IFRS9 Expected Credit Losses (ECL) are commonly calculated as the sum of the marginal future expected losses in each period following the reporting dateusing PD, LGD and EAD components. ECL can also be calculated directly from expected future cash flows. This could be an attractive option for many short-term lenders, especially for those that cannot leverage existing PD, LGD and EAD models, as it requires developing a single cash flow model.

Bank of England stress test scenario and UK financial stability outlook

The Bank of England has today published the latest outlook from the Financial Policy Committee and outlined the scenario for 2018’s bank stress tests, providing us with an indication of its likely areas of focus in assessing UK financial stability.


The financial services industry is currently busying itself with building models to predict the lifetime losses under the new IFRS 9 accounting standard, specifically for their stage 2 and stage 3 accounts. Generally, these are account level lifetime loss predictions with the ability to mechanically adjust to use probability weighted economic scenarios.

IFRS 9 stage 2: Dealing with lifetime expected losses and forward-looking adjustments

IFRS 9 (the new accounting standard) is fast approaching with many organisations already in full swing in terms of development and with their chasing pack firmly in the planning stages for design and build.  But just how ready are you for the impending changes?

IFRS 9 Benchmarking – more than a nice to have?

IFRS 9 is the new accounting standard from the International Accounting Standards Board for credit losses on portfolios of loans. It will come into effect in most jurisdictions for reporting periods starting January 2018. One of the key principles is that lenders should use relevant data that is reasonably available to assess the appropriateness of credit provisions.

IFRS 9 - what can I expect?

Based on our experience, there are a number of aspects that are common to every IFRS 9 project – they include:The solution you thought you would arrive with at the start is not actually the solution you end up with IFRS 9 is a vastly complex challenge and whilst simplifications can be applied, they need to be relevant and justifiable for your organisation. 

IFRS 9 - how to make the changes needed

The changes needed to meet the new IFRS 9 requirements are substantial and will require significant thought and effort by individual organisations and their advisors to develop a compliant solution that is right for them. Some larger, more complex and systemically significant organisations have been working on this for a number of years and still don’t have all of the answers

The Impact of IFRS 9 on the Banking Sector

In response to the financial crisis of 2007-2008, the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) is replacing the “incurred loss” model for loan provisioning (IAS39) with an “expected loss” model for loan provisioning (IFRS 9).