Keith Church, 4most’s Head of Economics gives his latest thoughts on the changing economic landscape…
Providing insight beyond the macroeconomic headlines. 4most, the leading risk analytics consultancy, has successfully launched a bespoke economics subscription service. The international service brings rigorous economic analysis to the challenges faced by the financial services sector.
Join our experts at Stay Ahead of the Game, our regulatory & economics briefing on Thursday 27 September @ 4:30 pm
On the 19th October, 4most will be hosting an Economic Roundtable, hosted by Head of Economic Modelling Keith Church, which will outline key economic developments and the risks that lie ahead.
Over the past decade, there has been a significant shift in patterns of consumer behaviour in relation to purchasing of new cars. UK private car registrations were 39% higher in 2016 than they were in 2011, a trend which has in part been driven by the expansion of the Personal Contract Purchase (PCP) deals. Some 82% of private new car purchases was financed in this way in 2016. PCPs contribution to the rise in unsecured borrowing is firmly on the radar of both the Bank of England (BoE) and Financial Conduct Authority (FCA).
07 March 2017, London: 4most, the global credit risk consultancy, has announced the appointment of Keith Church as Head of Economic Modelling. Keith joins 4most from Oxford Economics, where he was Director of Macro Modelling, holding responsibility for the development and coherence of Oxford Economics Global Economic Model.
The financial services industry is currently busying itself with building models to predict the lifetime losses under the new IFRS 9 accounting standard, specifically for their stage 2 and stage 3 accounts. Generally, these are account level lifetime loss predictions with the ability to mechanically adjust to use probability weighted economic scenarios.
IFRS 9 is the new accounting standard from the International Accounting Standards Board for credit losses on portfolios of loans. It will come into effect in most jurisdictions for reporting periods starting January 2018. One of the key principles is that lenders should use relevant data that is reasonably available to assess the appropriateness of credit provisions.
It’s something many have deliberated on and the speculation continues. We think this rather depends on how consistently and robustly the impending changes are implemented across the industry.