Forecasting

Five modelling challenges in modern forecasting and stress testing

Five modelling challenges in modern forecasting and stress testing

Since the implementation of International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS) 9, capital & impairment forecasting and stress testing has seen a sharp rise in complexity across the banking industry. 4most consultants have been working on projects dealing with Internal Capital Adequacy Assessment Process (ICAAP)…

4MOST LAUNCHES FIRST-OF-ITS-KIND BESPOKE ECONOMICS SUBSCRIPTION SERVICE

 Providing insight beyond the macroeconomic headlines. 4most, the leading risk analytics consultancy, has successfully launched a bespoke economics subscription service. The international service brings rigorous economic analysis to the challenges faced by the financial services sector.   

Has the expansion of car finance overstretched borrowers?

Over the past decade, there has been a significant shift in patterns of consumer behaviour in relation to purchasing of new cars. UK private car registrations were 39% higher in 2016 than they were in 2011, a trend which has in part been driven by the expansion of the Personal Contract Purchase (PCP) deals. Some 82% of private new car purchases was financed in this way in 2016. PCPs contribution to the rise in unsecured borrowing is firmly on the radar of both the Bank of England (BoE) and Financial Conduct Authority (FCA).

UK RESIDENTIAL MORTGAGE RISK WEIGHTS THE IMPACT OF CP29/16 ON THE RESIDENTIAL MORTGAGE MARKET

On the 31st October 2016 the consultation period closed on new proposals by the Prudential Regulatory Authority (PRA), which are highly likely to alter the internal ratings based (IRB) approach that deposit institutions (banks and building societies) with residential mortgage lending portfolios will need to adopt when calculating their risk-weighted assets (RWA). 

 

Households due to take on more debt in the long term as finances squeezed, Budget indicates

The final March budget didn’t spring any surprises.  While the Chancellor presented a more optimistic picture for short-term growth,  predications from the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) forecasts indicate that the improvement will likely not last long. 

IFRS 9 stage 2: Dealing with lifetime expected losses and forward-looking adjustments

IFRS 9 (the new accounting standard) is fast approaching with many organisations already in full swing in terms of development and with their chasing pack firmly in the planning stages for design and build.  But just how ready are you for the impending changes?

IFRS 9 Benchmarking – more than a nice to have?

IFRS 9 is the new accounting standard from the International Accounting Standards Board for credit losses on portfolios of loans. It will come into effect in most jurisdictions for reporting periods starting January 2018. One of the key principles is that lenders should use relevant data that is reasonably available to assess the appropriateness of credit provisions.

Forecasting under IFRS 9 – Technical Challenges ahead

IFRS9 is the new accounting standard from the IASB for credit losses on portfolios of loans that is expected to come into effect in January 2018 across at least 96 of 174 jurisdictions around the globe. Work in many banks and lenders is well progressed towards meeting the reporting deadline. I will not repeat the considerations required in the building of a new provision process here as that has been well covered in many places previously.