CECL may seem like just another regulatory burden, but the exercise of digging deep into your loan book can have big pay-offs far beyond 31 Dec 2019.
Open Banking will transform UK banking. For consumers, the whole experience will be more convenient, with better digital banking capability, more targeted and appropriate products and potentially better deals.
4th December 2017, London: 4most, a leading risk management consultancy, has been ranked 22nd in the 21st annual Sunday Times Virgin Fast Track 100. This represents an eleven place rise from 2016, where 4most were ranked 33rd and prior to that placed 63rd in 2015.
17th October 2017, London: 4most, the global credit risk consultancy, today announces the appointment of Ramesh Indran as Head of Insurance. Ramesh joins 4most from Deloitte’s Actuarial & Advanced Analytics practice where he was a Senior Manager.
On the 19th October, 4most will be hosting an Economic Roundtable, hosted by Head of Economic Modelling Keith Church, which will outline key economic developments and the risks that lie ahead.
Yesterday the Bank of England kicked off the 2017 stress testing season with publication of two economic scenarios. While the second Annual Cyclical Scenario (ACS) looks at capital positions under stress and – given the economic assumptions are little different from last year, succeeds in its aim of making the exercise predictable – the first ever Bank Exploratory Scenario (BES) tests the banks’ ability to react to a world where the picture is one of compressed profit margins and competition for funding.
Last week we heard that the European Central Bank had closed ranks with the Bank of England to avert the Brexit crunch. With the vote of the EU Referendum hanging in the wings, the European Central Bank has pledged to flood the financial system with euro liquidity if credit markets seize up after a Brexit vote.
A recent report has suggested that European MEPs want more scrutiny of accounting standards issued by the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) with an emphasis less complex rules, in addition to calling for scrutiny of whether standards allow tax fraud as well as improved governance of the IFRS Foundation, which governs the IASB.
The FT covered a piece on a regulatory crackdown that it claims removes the key incentive for measuring risk – view the full article here https://next.ft.com/content/672e8d6a-1d63-11e6-b286-cddde55ca122 Here is our response - this certainly covers the impact for investment banks as rather than retail. What BCBS have announced is that they are potentially withdrawing IRB treatments for exposures against large corporates and other banks.
While Brexit may be dominating the headlines at the moment, some experts believe that a debt of €360bn in bad loans within a fragmented Italian banking sector, could be the biggest threat of all. The suggestion is that even a “small crisis” could trigger a chain of events that could potentially threaten the stability of the European Union, credit ratings agency Moody’s is reported to have said.
We’ve got quite used to hearing the misery and bad news associated with UK banks since the financial crisis, yet one of the positive sides to this debate has been the rise of the challenger banks. These secondary players have grown quickly, with several listing last year as the sector continues to attract both customer and investor interest. The challenger banks have also long been praised by some politicians as being responsible for injecting much-needed further competition into the UK banking sector.
Traditionally, the relationship between collections and impairment is one way under IAS39. Collections activity can influence the severity of the loss and in the best case, can return accounts to order. This impacts the impairment line in two ways, the amount recovered and the direct cost of collecting it.
Regulations that aim to increase understanding of risks for management, investors and the general public are effective, self-reinforcing and are likely to change emergent behaviour. Market wide stress testing initiatives have been particularly powerful in this regard – by requiring banks to consider explicitly the worst scenarios and publish the outcomes, the market has been driven to protect and plan for those events.
Based on our experience, there are a number of aspects that are common to every IFRS 9 project – they include:The solution you thought you would arrive with at the start is not actually the solution you end up with IFRS 9 is a vastly complex challenge and whilst simplifications can be applied, they need to be relevant and justifiable for your organisation.
Another interesting consideration ahead of the impending accounting standard IFRS 9, is the effect this could have on valuation and pricing. Under IAS39 you only consider lifetime losses when the impairment event has already happened so you only hold a small amount of provision for your entire up to date book.
At this stage, most organisations are well on their way to coming up with a compliant solution for the new accounting standard IFRS9, which becomes mandatory on 1 January 2018. Management teams are also starting to understand the direct impact of IFRS9 to their profit and loss (P&L) and as a result, thought naturally leans towards the secondary impacts of the implementation of this regulation.
Challenger banks have welcomed moves to allow them to operate with lower capital than their larger “too big to fail” banking rivals. Chief Executive of Secure Trust has been reported to have said that small banks need to get bigger and take business away from the bigger banks believing it is the only way in which the taxpayer will be off the hook for bailing out ‘too big too fail’ banks in the future.
The changes needed to meet the new IFRS 9 requirements are substantial and will require significant thought and effort by individual organisations and their advisors to develop a compliant solution that is right for them. Some larger, more complex and systemically significant organisations have been working on this for a number of years and still don’t have all of the answers
Last week the headlines unveiled ramblings of a new stress test from Europe’s top banking regulator, which it suggests is impossible for the region’s lenders to fail. True? Well, the watered-down, stress-free stress tests come at a time of market chaos, according to reports, and also amid investor concerns over the strength and stability of the European banking industry.