Economics Subscription Service


All businesses face the challenge of taking on board the likely economic environment when they make their plans.

Understanding emerging risks is key for effective planning, and high quality economic insight can help organisations seize opportunities as they arise and avoid potential future pitfalls.  Our Economics Service brings rigorous economic analysis to these challenges faced by the banking sector and beyond.  

4most provides economic insights tailored to specific business requirements by looking at customer profiles, by interlocking with existing business models, and by focussing on risks, opportunities and targets.  Our knowledge of the challenges you face, allows us to bring understanding of customer behaviour to your projects and better integrate developments in the economy into the internal drivers of your business.
We provide regular updates of Management Information for clients and can present at board meetings, committees and forums alike.

Below are some of the specific services within our broad range of expertise that are designed to ensure your business requirements are met:

We invite clients to quarterly economics forums with wider industry participation where emerging risks are openly discussed.


Scenarios

Our Scenario Generation service monitors a set of key structure risks and provides early warnings of trends in the measures that drive your business. These risks are translated into scenarios using our bespoke economic model to allow you to plan for a range of eventualities by running “what-if” analysis to test plans against the world developing differently. Our experience in designing, developing and implementing macroeconomic forecasts to be embedded in IFRS 9 models means we recognise the need for stable scenarios that only change when the news merits, allowing for sensible and compliant economic components bespoke to the composition of your product portfolios.

Using our Scenarios Service allows firms to run “what-if” analysis to test plans against the world developing differently. This also provides a solution for firms in the financial sector bound by the IFRS 9 accounting standard.


Model Building

Many of our consultants are actively embedded in the Financial Services industry and understand the need to apply both statistical and business lenses to model building.  Our approach melds technical model-building skills with our knowledge of industry and economic developments which ensures the delivery of models that allow clients to easily interpret movements in the key drivers of the balance sheet as the economy evolves.


Beyond Banking

While our focus is on credit risk and the key drivers of the balance sheet in financial organisations, the same tools and analysis can be applied to other areas.  Our economics consultancy service has recently looked at key drivers of the UK car market to help understand current market developments in both registrations and pricing. This work, combined with our scenario generation tool, has been used to map our potential future developments in the market.

 

For further information on Economic insight, please contact our Head of Economic Modelling, Keith Church: keith.church@4-most.co.uk


 
 

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