A recent Bank of England working paper highlights the link between banking market competition and financial system stability. Consistent with earlier work, it highlights that as competition increases, the banking system overall responds typically by moving to higher risk lending. However, in addition, it describes how individual banks tend to converge with the most-risky becoming more secure as competition increases.
Providing insight beyond the macroeconomic headlines. 4most, the leading risk analytics consultancy, has successfully launched a bespoke economics subscription service. The international service brings rigorous economic analysis to the challenges faced by the financial services sector.
21 September 2018, London: 4most, the global credit risk consultancy, has appointed Alvin Ng as their new Chief Financial Officer (CFO). Alvin joins from the UK arm of the Weston family’s private office, Galewest Investments Ltd, where his role spanned strategic tax planning and global private assets management. At 4most, he will be responsible for directing and managing all aspects of the finance function and will be a key component in 4most’s leadership team.
Join our experts at Stay Ahead of the Game, our regulatory & economics briefing on Thursday 27 September @ 4:30 pm
Welcome to the first edition of RegRadar. With publication of Basel III reforms in December 2017, the ongoing EBA RWA harmonisation programme and both the BoE & the ECB consulting on the Definition of Default for credit risk, forward planning and timely implementation is key to understanding how reforms will impact capital and compliance costs of current and future business plans.
The financial services industry has recently undergone a major change due to the introduction of IFRS 9 impairment requirements. This has come generally at increased costs due to either the redirection of internal resource or engagement of third parties to develop compliant models.
4most, the leading risk analytics consultancy, today announces that it has sold majority ownership to an EOT (Employee Ownership Trust). Co-founders Sisson and Somers, together with early investors Beechbrook Capital have sold 55% of the issued share capital to the Trust which will ultimately own the company for the benefit of staff. Sisson and Somers will remain on the board and continue to manage and run 4most Group.
IFRS9 Expected Credit Losses (ECL) are commonly calculated as the sum of the marginal future expected losses in each period following the reporting date, using PD, LGD and EAD components. ECL can also be calculated directly from expected future cash flows. This could be an attractive option for many short-term lenders, especially for those that cannot leverage existing PD, LGD and EAD models, as it requires developing a single cash flow model.
This March marks 10 years since the fire sale of Bear Stearns in 2008, a significant moment in the global financial crisis. This moment offers us an appropriate time to reflect and assess how the banking industry has changed in that time and learned from the mistakes of the past – and to consider what the future holds for the sector.
The Bank of England has today published the latest outlook from the Financial Policy Committee and outlined the scenario for 2018’s bank stress tests, providing us with an indication of its likely areas of focus in assessing UK financial stability.
Open Banking will transform UK banking. For consumers, the whole experience will be more convenient, with better digital banking capability, more targeted and appropriate products and potentially better deals.
4th December 2017, London: 4most, a leading risk management consultancy, has been ranked 22nd in the 21st annual Sunday Times Virgin Fast Track 100. This represents an eleven place rise from 2016, where 4most were ranked 33rd and prior to that placed 63rd in 2015.
On 28th November, the Bank of England published the results from its 2017 stress tests, which provided an assessment of the stability of UK’s banking system.
The headlines show that the major UK banks have all passed the stress tests and are deemed strong enough to keep lending in a scenario more severe than that of the 2008 global financial crisis, which is good news for the sector.
As widely anticipated, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has today decided to raise interest rates by 0.25 percentage points, to 0.5% -- the first interest rate rise in 10 years.
17th October 2017, London: 4most, the global credit risk consultancy, today announces the appointment of Ramesh Indran as Head of Insurance. Ramesh joins 4most from Deloitte’s Actuarial & Advanced Analytics practice where he was a Senior Manager.
On the 19th October, 4most will be hosting an Economic Roundtable, hosted by Head of Economic Modelling Keith Church, which will outline key economic developments and the risks that lie ahead.
Over the past decade, there has been a significant shift in patterns of consumer behaviour in relation to purchasing of new cars. UK private car registrations were 39% higher in 2016 than they were in 2011, a trend which has in part been driven by the expansion of the Personal Contract Purchase (PCP) deals. Some 82% of private new car purchases was financed in this way in 2016. PCPs contribution to the rise in unsecured borrowing is firmly on the radar of both the Bank of England (BoE) and Financial Conduct Authority (FCA).
Worries about the level of debt in the UK household sector have re-emerged over the last year. The period of – rather modest – retrenchment that took place during and since the global financial crisis saw debt fall from a peak of 163% of income to 141%.
UK unemployment continues to fall. In the three months to February, there were 45,000 fewer people unable to find a job than was the case in September to November 2016. This is down 141,000 on a year ago. Those looking at the numbers from a credit risk perspective can take heart: the last time the UK unemployment rate was this low was in the 1970s.