A recent Bank of England working paper highlights the link between banking market competition and financial system stability. Consistent with earlier work, it highlights that as competition increases, the banking system overall responds typically by moving to higher risk lending. However, in addition, it describes how individual banks tend to converge with the most-risky becoming more secure as competition increases.
Providing insight beyond the macroeconomic headlines. 4most, the leading risk analytics consultancy, has successfully launched a bespoke economics subscription service. The international service brings rigorous economic analysis to the challenges faced by the financial services sector.
21 September 2018, London: 4most, the global credit risk consultancy, has appointed Alvin Ng as their new Chief Financial Officer (CFO). Alvin joins from the UK arm of the Weston family’s private office, Galewest Investments Ltd, where his role spanned strategic tax planning and global private assets management. At 4most, he will be responsible for directing and managing all aspects of the finance function and will be a key component in 4most’s leadership team.
Welcome to the first edition of RegRadar. With publication of Basel III reforms in December 2017, the ongoing EBA RWA harmonisation programme and both the BoE & the ECB consulting on the Definition of Default for credit risk, forward planning and timely implementation is key to understanding how reforms will impact capital and compliance costs of current and future business plans.
The financial services industry has recently undergone a major change due to the introduction of IFRS 9 impairment requirements. This has come generally at increased costs due to either the redirection of internal resource or engagement of third parties to develop compliant models.
4most, the leading risk analytics consultancy, today announces that it has sold majority ownership to an EOT (Employee Ownership Trust). Co-founders Sisson and Somers, together with early investors Beechbrook Capital have sold 55% of the issued share capital to the Trust which will ultimately own the company for the benefit of staff. Sisson and Somers will remain on the board and continue to manage and run 4most Group.
IFRS9 Expected Credit Losses (ECL) are commonly calculated as the sum of the marginal future expected losses in each period following the reporting date, using PD, LGD and EAD components. ECL can also be calculated directly from expected future cash flows. This could be an attractive option for many short-term lenders, especially for those that cannot leverage existing PD, LGD and EAD models, as it requires developing a single cash flow model.
This March marks 10 years since the fire sale of Bear Stearns in 2008, a significant moment in the global financial crisis. This moment offers us an appropriate time to reflect and assess how the banking industry has changed in that time and learned from the mistakes of the past – and to consider what the future holds for the sector.
The Bank of England has today published the latest outlook from the Financial Policy Committee and outlined the scenario for 2018’s bank stress tests, providing us with an indication of its likely areas of focus in assessing UK financial stability.
Open Banking will transform UK banking. For consumers, the whole experience will be more convenient, with better digital banking capability, more targeted and appropriate products and potentially better deals.
4th December 2017, London: 4most, a leading risk management consultancy, has been ranked 22nd in the 21st annual Sunday Times Virgin Fast Track 100. This represents an eleven place rise from 2016, where 4most were ranked 33rd and prior to that placed 63rd in 2015.
On 28th November, the Bank of England published the results from its 2017 stress tests, which provided an assessment of the stability of UK’s banking system.
The headlines show that the major UK banks have all passed the stress tests and are deemed strong enough to keep lending in a scenario more severe than that of the 2008 global financial crisis, which is good news for the sector.
17th October 2017, London: 4most, the global credit risk consultancy, today announces the appointment of Ramesh Indran as Head of Insurance. Ramesh joins 4most from Deloitte’s Actuarial & Advanced Analytics practice where he was a Senior Manager.
Over the past decade, there has been a significant shift in patterns of consumer behaviour in relation to purchasing of new cars. UK private car registrations were 39% higher in 2016 than they were in 2011, a trend which has in part been driven by the expansion of the Personal Contract Purchase (PCP) deals. Some 82% of private new car purchases was financed in this way in 2016. PCPs contribution to the rise in unsecured borrowing is firmly on the radar of both the Bank of England (BoE) and Financial Conduct Authority (FCA).
Worries about the level of debt in the UK household sector have re-emerged over the last year. The period of – rather modest – retrenchment that took place during and since the global financial crisis saw debt fall from a peak of 163% of income to 141%.
UK unemployment continues to fall. In the three months to February, there were 45,000 fewer people unable to find a job than was the case in September to November 2016. This is down 141,000 on a year ago. Those looking at the numbers from a credit risk perspective can take heart: the last time the UK unemployment rate was this low was in the 1970s.
In case you missed it in The Times and The Mail on Sunday, 4most have reported that there could be a potentially substantial credit risk to UK lenders should the UK government fail to reach an agreement on the status of EU nationals.
On the 31st October 2016 the consultation period closed on new proposals by the Prudential Regulatory Authority (PRA), which are highly likely to alter the internal ratings based (IRB) approach that deposit institutions (banks and building societies) with residential mortgage lending portfolios will need to adopt when calculating their risk-weighted assets (RWA).
Yesterday the Bank of England kicked off the 2017 stress testing season with publication of two economic scenarios. While the second Annual Cyclical Scenario (ACS) looks at capital positions under stress and – given the economic assumptions are little different from last year, succeeds in its aim of making the exercise predictable – the first ever Bank Exploratory Scenario (BES) tests the banks’ ability to react to a world where the picture is one of compressed profit margins and competition for funding.
The final March budget didn’t spring any surprises. While the Chancellor presented a more optimistic picture for short-term growth, predications from the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) forecasts indicate that the improvement will likely not last long.
07 March 2017, London: 4most, the global credit risk consultancy, has announced the appointment of Keith Church as Head of Economic Modelling. Keith joins 4most from Oxford Economics, where he was Director of Macro Modelling, holding responsibility for the development and coherence of Oxford Economics Global Economic Model.
The financial services industry is currently busying itself with building models to predict the lifetime losses under the new IFRS 9 accounting standard, specifically for their stage 2 and stage 3 accounts. Generally, these are account level lifetime loss predictions with the ability to mechanically adjust to use probability weighted economic scenarios.
IFRS 9 (the new accounting standard) is fast approaching with many organisations already in full swing in terms of development and with their chasing pack firmly in the planning stages for design and build. But just how ready are you for the impending changes?
IFRS9 (the new accounting standard) is fast approaching with many organisations already in full swing in terms of development and with their chasing pack firmly in the planning stages for design and build. But just how ready are you for the impending changes?
IFRS 9 is the new accounting standard from the International Accounting Standards Board for credit losses on portfolios of loans. It will come into effect in most jurisdictions for reporting periods starting January 2018. One of the key principles is that lenders should use relevant data that is reasonably available to assess the appropriateness of credit provisions.
Right now, most organisations are well on their way to coming up with a compliant solution for IFRS 9. Management are starting to understand the direct impact to their P&L (profit and loss) although thought naturally moves to the other impacts of the implementation of this regulation.
IFRS9 is the new accounting standard from the IASB for credit losses on portfolios of loans that is expected to come into effect in January 2018 across at least 96 of 174 jurisdictions around the globe. Work in many banks and lenders is well progressed towards meeting the reporting deadline. I will not repeat the considerations required in the building of a new provision process here as that has been well covered in many places previously.